Russ Carnahan’s (D-MO) Republican opponent, Ed Martin, held the last of the three debates turned townhalls Tuesday night. Martin had suggested the debates with Carnahan shortly after the August primary; however, Carnahan declined all three. This last debate focussed on healthcare though veterans affairs, unemployment, and the economy were also discussed. I will be posting video later.

Previous debate coverage:

• Ed Martin asks: where’d the money go?

Gallup is reporting the first ever double-digit lead for Republicans on the generic ballot:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

As the Instapundit would say: “don’t get cocky.” This is a strong lead, but a lot can happen between now and November. On the other hand, don’t get complacent. Republican’s like Ed Martin need canvasing and phone call support. Martin is running against Russ Carnahan (D-MO) in a D+7 district.

Ed Martin, the Republican opponent of Russ Carnahan (D-MO), talks about the closing of the Chrysler plant in Fenton, MO, and the stimulus money spent in Missouri’s Third Congressional District.

Yet Democratic concern continues to manifest itself in a variety of ways, including the purchasing of ads in districts – like that of veteran Ike Skelton of Missouri — that historically are only in play in miserable political years and were not considered at risk several months ago. And then there are more subtle hints that professional Democrats are worried — lobbyists are reporting a noticeable uptick in House committee staffers looking for jobs.

If you’d like to bring change to Washington by supporting the opponent of Ike Skelton (D-MO), checkout Vicky Hartzler (R-MO). She’s running a strong campaign in America’s heartland. The Politico article continues:

What Democrats are watching most closely right now is to see if the field of at-risk seats does indeed keep expanding. There are fresh concerns about Reps. Allen Boyd of Florida, Jim Marshall of Georgia and Leonard Boswell of Iowa – all of whom were recently moved into the toss-up category by respected handicapper Charlie Cook.

In addition, Reps. Ben Chandler of Kentucky and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin of South Dakota were both outraised by their opponents this past quarter, increasing concern about their races.

That field of at-risk seats will soon include Russ Carnahan (D-MO). His opponent, Ed Martin (R-MO), is running a strong campaign. Of course, Carnahan makes Ed’s job is easier when he ignores a constituent’s question and runs away, claims to be fiscally conservative despite his Porker of the Month award, and confirms that a disgruntled employee “firebombed” his office. The scary thing is all three of those stories broke in the past twenty-four hours.

The Carnahan crew’s yacht is taking on water, and we’re not talking a little water like you might see from a leaky roof at the Crystal Ballroom or his residence. No we’re talking about water in quantities not seen since his lobbyist funded trips to the Great Barrier Reef, Hawaii, and Antarctica.

Let this be a warning to anyone thinking about working on Carnahan’s campaign: demand higher wages and require him to prepay!

UPDATE: Welcome Gateway Punditeers! I’ve got other recent Russ Carnahan news and notes, too. And here’s a short video of Carnahan’s opponent Ed Martin.

Oh brother…
These people have no shame.
Big spending liberal democrats are coming back home to their districts and trying to persuade constituents that they are fiscal conservatives.
Here is a Russ Carnahan flyer that a friend picked up this week.

The flyer says in part:

Fiscal Responsibility
As an original sponsor of Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO), Russ fought to restore the fiscal restraint that helped build record surpluses in the mid-1990s.

The irony is that Citizens Against Government Waste named Russ Carnahan the July 2009 Porker of the Month! As a commenter at Gateway Pundit pointed out, Carnahan’s lifetime rating with Citizens Against Government Waste is 4%. For 2009 his rating isn’t even that high. In the year in which he co-sponsored PAYGO, his rating is 0%.

In 2004, Russ Carnahan made a series of promises upon being elected to fill Dick Gephardt's seat in the 3rd District.

These are pulled directly from his campaign site. 

On staying in touch with the people in his district. 

"Congressman Gephardt has provided a great model for service by keeping local and personal contact with his constituents. I will work tirelessly to continue that strong connection to the people. No one will out work me at the grassroots level."

Voters of the third district.  When was the last time any of you saw Russ Carnahan out in public, without a carefully scripted meeting? When was the last time he ate in your restaurants, shopped in your stores, or just walked around and met with you?  Dick Gephardt was great at this.  Russ promised to serve in the same manner, but like every job he's had, from BJC lobbyist to Missouri State Representative, he just doesn't have his heart in it.  You know it's true. 

Russ's Economic Plan

1. Restore America 's Economy and American Jobs
 The Bush Administration, through irresponsible tax cuts and excessive spending, is mortgaging our economic future. Corporate scandals, job loss, and economic stagnation are the hallmarks of an administration that has focused on tax breaks for the richest Americans. In Congress, I will work hard for all Americans, particularly our children and the future generations who will have to pay for Republican economic excesses. My economic priorities will focus on reducing the spiraling national debt, protecting American jobs from being outsourced to countries with unfair trade policies, ensuring responsible corporate policies and developing cutting edge technologies in Missouri 's 3rd District.  

When Russ took office in 2005, the Debt was $7 Trillion, but the deficit was shrinking.  Once the Democrats took over in 2007, the debt exploded, and we are now over $13 trillion in debt, with trillion dollar deficits forecast for the next decade.  

What has Russ down to reduce the spiraling debt?  He voted time and again to increase it.  Mind you this was 2004 that he was making these promises.  This was before the bailouts, before the crash, and before 10% unemployment.  Maybe if he read the bills he was voting on…

Now I hear his sister, Robin Carnahan (in addition to whacking him over the head for taking half his money for PACs, voting for TARP and other bailouts, and earmarking special interests like his brother's wind farm), is for those evil tax cuts to the richest Americans.  

5. Fight for Seniors: Save Social Security and Medicare for Future Generations

 As Tom Brokaw's “Greatest Generation” settles into retirement, programs for seniors are facing the greatest threat since their inception. One of my most fundamental duties as a Congressman will be to preserve and protect these programs — particularly Social Security and Medicare. 

Social Security and Medicare are broke – taking in more than they are paying out, and Social Security has been raided of all of its surplus, which means there is nothing for future programs.  And to top it off, Russ's vote on the healthcare plan cut $500 billion from Medicare so they could claim the bill was deficit neutral!  Two months later, they tried to put the funding back in, having crammed through healthcare on a straight-line party vote and with billions in pay-offs and kickbacks.

Bottom line for Carnahan – is he's going to lose a race in a safe Democratic district because he's the laziest politician in Missouri.  Democrats in the third district only support him in a lukewarm manner, but most will be pleased when he is gone.  They can't wait until 2012 to run a representative who actually wants to be there. 

But with so many promising Republican challengers this year, a bunch of potential upsets are flying well under the radar. And with the political environment going from bad to worse for Democrats, it is increasingly likely the night of November 2 will include some winners that almost no one saw coming. If you’re searching for some of these long shots who are looking shorter these days, here is a dirty baker’s dozen of GOP challengers to keep an eye on. They’re underfunded, unrecognized, rarely mentioned, and given no chance and they may just win anyway.

1. Ed Martin vs. Russ Carnahan, Missouri’s 3rd District.

Reasons the challenger should have no chance: It’s a D+7 district on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Russ Carnahan won with 66 percent of the vote in 2004. The Carnahan name is supposed to be magic in Missouri politics, and his sister Robin is running for Senate.

Reasons the challenger has a chance: Robin Carnahan’s lousy polling indicates that the family name doesn’t carry the weight it once did. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has already declared that Martin is “giving Carnahan the toughest general election campaign of his congressional career.” A recent poll puts Martin within striking distance, 39 percent to 48 percent.

There are a lot more reasons for Ed Martin to pickup this seat. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) just isn’t a very good candidate. To put it charitably, he neglects his constituents. For example, Carnahan refused to take my question at the end of a healthcare forum last summer; his staff denied me my first amendment press freedom; and they did the same to Sharp, too.

Then there’s the stuff he says: “…over ten years [healthcare reform] will create a six billion dollar surplus…” or this old saw: “my door is always open.”

His habitual abuse of power also works against him: a lobbyist funded trip to the Great Barrier Reef, $90 million dollar earmark to his brother’s wind farm, using campaign contributions to pay himself, and dodging personal property taxes in St. Louis. It’s not surprising to me that Ed Martin posses a threat. It’s surprising that Democrats overwhelmingly backed the corruptocrat Carnahan in the recent primary. Incumbency helped that happen which is why I have long felt that legislators should not be allowed to serve consecutive terms.

You know, there's nothing funnier than trying to set a campaign headquarters on fire.  The threat to staff, the property damage, the political repercussions of violence in a political campaign.

It's one knee-slapping heck of a good time…or at least it is if you're a DC lobbyist, former Democratic consultant to the family, and in business with the mother of Russ Carnahan.

Roy Temple thought enough of the attack on Russ Carnahan's office that he made fun of it on Twitter, less than 24 hours after it happened.

How weird is that?  I don't even know Russ personally, and my first public response was to condemn the act and the person, no matter who it was.

Roy – he makes a joke.  I wonder if he made the joke because he already knew what happened?  I would hope he at least made a phone call before being so callous.  Keep in mind that Russ's staff is so scared, they won't even talk to reporters because, you know, the office was firebombed.

We're pretty sure that was the case, but it's getting harder and harder to take the incident seriously when no one in the government, law enforcement, or in cahoots with the Carnahan seems to be concerned about it. 

If you're looking to understand why no national media has picked up
the story of the firebombing of Russ Carnahan's office, look no further
than FiredUpMissouri.

Five
days go by and the only thing you hear is a reprint of an email.

One
might be charitable and assume FiredUp is waiting to hear the full
story before jumping to conclusions, but charitable isn't something Sean
deserves.  His boss thought it was funny – Sean puts out a missive.  What's going on?  Let's take a look at Sean's past behavior.

He's posted a series of Nazi pictures to paint the Tea
Party as extreme.  He's jumped all over the police report of the phony
Brian Nieves assault. He's spent the last eighteen months using his fake
blog names to smear, lie, distort, and name-call anyone and everyone
associated with conservatives, Republicans or Tea Parties, and we're
supposed to believe that only now, he's decided to show a bit of
maturity and hold off?  Not a chance. Sean must have received a call
telling him to stand down, and the same order must have been given to
any reporter calling in nationally hoping to write, talk and broadcast
the horrible story of a firebomb attack on a congressman's office by a
crazed right winger.  The coffin made national news, but only after Carnahan's office planted a false story in the Politico about it being a coffin left on the lawn, and not a prayer vigil covered by the local news.   The firebomb can't even get a casual mention in 120 hours? 

Where's
the hyperactive Chris Matthews on this? Keith Olbermann?  Where's Roy Temple and Jean Carnahan, both eager to spin news
and spit lies, but neither willing to defend Russ when he's attacked in a
violent manner?   Can't they at least condemn the violence?  Or do they
know something that shuts their mouths?

Do you realize if
someone broke my office window and threw in a flaming projectile in,
that I would be all over the national news the next day?  What makes me more
relevant to the news than Russ Carnahan?

Who is putting a tamper
on this story?

10) Brian Wahby misunderstood a garbled voicemail that promised $10,000 from a Chicago business guy if he would set Russ's campaign on fire.

9) Sean Soendker Nicholson, after a three day binge in the brainwashing room, thought FiredUp was a command, not an official propaganda organ for the Carnahan family.

Charlie Dooley.  With his campaign failing miserably, Dooley figured a good arson investigation would help him ask firefighters to give 1% of their salary in donations. 

7) A St Louis City Young Dem got drunk at the Royale and didn't think he could drive home.  He was hanging out at the office trying to eat some Taco Bell to sober up, but they accidentally gave him a Volcano Burrito instead of a Chicken Burrito with sour cream.  That stuff was hot!

6) Lewis Reed and Russ Carnahan, having failed at historical rehabbing and pleasure cruising, decided to take up pottery. They were so engrossed re-enacting the scene from Ghost together, the kiln exploded when they didn't check the temperature.

5) Sara Howard was printing up flyers accusing Ed Martin of being the son of Bull Connor and George Wallace, but after 30,000 copies, the printer caught on fire.  It was a Sabre.

4) Roy Temple decided to perform a live version of the black churches burning radio ad, but it really needed to be done outdoors for safety reasons.

3) Jean Carnahan lights a candle in Russ's office every time she's disappointed in him.  It was only a matter of when, not if.

2) Carnahan let Missourians Organizing for Reform and Empowerment use his offices when they were kicked out of CAMP, and the finance room makes a great hot box.

And the number one conspiracy theory on what really happened at Russ's office…..

1) Those guys who worked for Mayor Slay?  The ones who firebombed Elston
McCowan's church van? They did it because they heard Carnahan was going to run for
mayor on the Gateway Green ticket.